Treasury cycle model

Given the assumptions currently set. Change any of them and this figure changes.

Your position? Size it in whichever unit you think in Shares Dollars Bitcoin Adding to it Cash to deploy

Company as of 2026-08-17 Which company? Bitcoin held Diluted shares Senior claims, net? Share price Bitcoin price

Figures verified by hand against filings. Today the market pays 0.99 for a claim on this company's bitcoin, net of the senior stack; the modelled path starts at 1.00 and is not company-specific.

Execution Horizon, cycles Sell % at tops Capture at the top Premium at the low Slippage %

Annual spending? on auto Minimum?

Now to 2029 2029 to 2033 2033 to 2037 2037 onwards

Reserve and loans? Reserve, years of spending Held as, by weight?

Bitcoin Cash 4% Gold 5% Yield 6%

Loans Fund spending from margin? Clear loans at each top?

Setting this to zero keeps more of the position working and removes the part of the plan that survives if the rest does not. Setting it above zero costs terminal value, and the figure above shows how much.

Copy link to these numbers Reset to defaults

The path The cycle repeats · rotate · realistic fills

Year	Bitcoin	Share	Shares	Cash	Reserve	Total	Action
2026	$64k	$96	3,363	$0	$0	$322k	Low $58.5k in June; year end at spot
2027	$115k	$245	3,000	$0	$0	$735k	Recovery
2028	$160k	$384	2,798	$0	$0	$1.07M	Halving; prior high regained
2029	$260k	$834	0	$1.75M	$0	$1.75M	Cycle 1 top window
2030	$170k	$363	3,415	$0	$0	$1.24M	Bear
2031	$185k	$435	3,240	$0	$0	$1.41M	Basing
2032	$260k	$690	3,113	$0	$0	$2.15M	Recovery
2033	$420k	$1k	0	$3.35M	$0	$3.35M	Cycle 2 top window
2034	$290k	$700	3,438	$0	$0	$2.41M	Bear
2035	$320k	$847	3,337	$0	$0	$2.83M	Basing
2036	$430k	$1k	3,259	$0	$0	$4.01M	Recovery
2037	$620k	$2k	3,210	$0	$0	$6.93M	Cycle 3 top window · $5.41M if sold here

Against the alternatives

Strategy	End value	Coin	What it is
Rotate	$6.93M	6.788	Sell at tops the gate approves, buy back at the lows
Half capture	$4.74M	4.587	The same rules, executed at half size
A year early	$0	0.000	Every signal fires one year before the top
Hold	$4.11M	4.028	Never sell
Hold and borrow	$5.17M	5.063	Never sell; borrow to live, cleared at each top

How much can you take out? and still end holding % of it

Plan	Spend now	By the end	Peak loan	Left
Rotate, selling at tops	$17k	$581k	$0	100%
Rotate, borrowing to live	$30k	$1.04M	$778k	100%	most spending
Hold, selling to live	—	—	$0	—	not at this setting
Hold, borrowing, cleared at tops	—	—	$470	—	not at this setting
Hold, borrowing, debt rides	$6k	$205k	$532k	100%

Does rotating beat holding at 2029? Yes

Fall after57% Breakeven43% A round trip gains coin only if the fall clears the breakeven. Why

Top	Fall after	Breakeven	Reading
2029	57%	43%	Rotating wins
2033	51%	43%	Rotating wins
2037	0%	43%	Held: no fall after it

Rotation stops clearing the breakeven at 2041. From there the gate refuses the trade and the position holds. ?