The path?$620k in 2037, 1.19x below it. Cycle tops and bottoms marked.actualpathpower lawchannel to 2037, ending $1.11M
| Year | Bitcoin | Share | Premium | Held | Cash | Reserve | Owned | Loan | Total | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $82.5k | $140 | 1.09× | 179 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $25.0k | Latest published prices. Each row is that year’s high, or its low if the price falls. |
| 2026 | $92.7k | $175 | 1.11× | 179 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $31.3k | June low |
| 2027 | $115k | $236 | 1.17× | 179 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $42.2k | Recovery · high |
| 2028 | $160k | $371 | 1.24× | 179 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $66.4k | Halving · high |
| 2029 | $260k | $810 | 1.57× | 0 | $113k | $0 | $0 | $0 | $113k | Sold all at $666 · Cycle 1 top · high |
| 2030 | $130k | $253 | 1.06× | 330 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $83.2k | Bought back at $343 · Bear · low |
| 2031 | $185k | $408 | 1.13× | 330 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $134k | Basing · high |
| 2032 | $260k | $650 | 1.23× | 330 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $214k | Recovery · high |
| 2033 | $420k | $1,334 | 1.51× | 0 | $343k | $0 | $0 | $0 | $343k | Sold all at $1,096 · Cycle 2 top · high |
| 2034 | $210k | $457 | 1.07× | 553 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $252k | Bought back at $621 · Bear · low |
| 2035 | $320k | $777 | 1.15× | 553 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $430k | Basing · high |
| 2036 | $430k | $1,136 | 1.22× | 553 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $628k | Recovery · high |
| 2037 | $620k | $2,000 | 1.46× | 553 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1.11M | Held through: last top, nothing to rebuy · Cycle 3 top · high |
Move a year? as written
| Year | Bitcoin, $k | Premium, × | Phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Low $58.5k in June; year end at spot | ||
| 2027 | Recovery | ||
| 2028 | Halving; prior high regained | ||
| 2029 | Cycle 1 top window | ||
| 2030 | Bear | ||
| 2031 | Basing | ||
| 2032 | Recovery | ||
| 2033 | Cycle 2 top window | ||
| 2034 | Bear | ||
| 2035 | Basing | ||
| 2036 | Recovery | ||
| 2037 | Cycle 3 top window | ||
| 2038 | Bear | ||
| 2039 | Basing | ||
| 2040 | Recovery | ||
| 2041 | Cycle 4 top window | ||
| 2042 | Bear | ||
| 2043 | Basing | ||
| 2044 | Recovery | ||
| 2045 | Cycle 5 top, horizon end |
A moved year is marked in the table above and travels with the link.
Against the power law
Every cycle low since 2013 has landed within 0.94–1.14× a line through them. This path’s lows fall to 0.66× the live floor by 2030 and 0.47× by 2034, so it assumes that floor stops binding. Why. ?
The channel has narrowed every cycle against a line through the lows (18.4×, 12.4×, 6.0×, 2.7×). The live cap is 2.38× by 2029. Bull tops that year at 2.60×, wider than the channel is expected to be. Nothing is capped to it. The edges converge without meeting, and neither convergence is a date. The floor now stays inside the world at every horizon; anchored on the genesis block it did not. Why. ?
Where are we now? 3 of 5 bottom signals lit, past the 3 it takes as of today
All 5 bottom signals have lit at some point this cycle. 3 are lit together now, and the model calls a bottom at 3. Before the ledger began, at least 4 were lit together on 24 Jun, rebuilt from the same rules with the wrapper leg left out. No top signal has lit this cycle.
Signals read on 2026-10-19, as of today.
Is it near a top? nothing lit this cycle
| Signal | Reading, and what it takes | Gap | First lit | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| not lit this cycle: Stretched above its own trend | percentile 38.1, needs at or above the 75th | 36.9 to go | +1.00 | |
| not lit this cycle: Inside the window the halving implies | outside the window, needs 16-20 months after a halving | untested | ||
| not lit this cycle: The wrapper is expensive | 1.071x net asset value, needs at or above 1.35x | 0.28x to go | untested | |
| not lit this cycle: Froth | 0 of 3 signs, needs at least two of three | +1.00 | ||
| lit earlier this cycle: The crowd is greedy | 59 on the Fear and Greed index, needs at or above 70 | 11 to go | 6 Oct | not counted |
Is it near a bottom? 3 lit now, 5 of 5 this cycle, past the 3 it takes
| Signal | Reading, and what it takes | Gap | First lit | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| lit now: The wrapper is cheap | 1.071x net asset value, needs at or below 1.2x | past by 0.13x | by 12 Jul | untested |
| lit earlier this cycle: Back at its own trend | percentile 38.1, needs at or below the 20th | 18.1 to go | 24 Jun | +1.00 |
| lit earlier this cycle: Holders under water | percentile 41.2, needs at or below the 20th | 21.2 to go | 5 Feb | +1.00 |
| lit now: Money supply turning up | up 1.81 points off its 12-month low, needs at least 0.3 points, turning up rather than a level | past by 1.51 points | by 1 Nov | +0.50 |
| lit now: Long enough since the peak | 12.4 months since 2025-10-06, needs 8-14 months | inside the window | 6 Jun | untested |
| lit earlier this cycle: The crowd is fearful | 59 on the Fear and Greed index, needs at or below 25 | 34 to go | 12 Oct | not counted |
The cycle runs from the 2025-10-06 peak, and a date is when a signal first lit inside it, whether or not it is lit now. The count since the peak is the better read of whether the cycle has turned.
Does rotating beat holding? rotating wins at 3 of 3 tops
The trade is simple enough: sell part of the position near a top, wait for the fall, buy back more coin than you sold. Nobody picks the exact top or the exact bottom, and you do not have to - what decides it is whether the fall is deep enough to cover how far off you were. Your Execution settings assume you sell at 82% of the top and buy back at 1.36× the low, which puts the bar at 43%: the price has to fall further than that before selling and buying back leaves you with more. On this path it does - 69% after the 2029 top, 66% after 2033 and 62% after 2037 - so there is room to be early or late. The narrowest is 2037, 20 points deeper than the bar, which is how wrong the timing can be before the trade stops paying. Those depths are what the last four cycles did, carried forward - not a claim about the next one. The 2037 fall is measured a cycle past the years shown, because the run stops at that top. Sell nearer the top, or buy back nearer the low, and the bar drops and more tops clear.
Every modelled top clears the breakeven, so nothing here observes rotation expiring. Falls compress about 5% a cycle, and extrapolating past the last modelled cycle puts the crossing near 2068. ?
Which scenario is live? Mania
Live is ahead of every straight line from the June low to 2026; closest to Mania. Live $140 vs $137 today; bitcoin 82k vs 80k; premium 1.09× vs 1.03×.
The mark is today’s print against that line.
A share’s bitcoin per share is the third term. Filings to 2026-08-16 measured -18% a year (shares 387.4M to 397.4M); the model assumed +2.0%. ?
What would each scenario cost? 1.9× the last cycle’s money for Repeat
A price is not a forecast until someone has priced the money needed to reach it. Each rung asks for a certain amount of net new money — what holders actually paid, not market value, which moves when nobody trades. The last full cycle delivered $0.69T of it, and it did that on 1.88× the cycle before. So read the last column against 1.88, not against one.
| Scenario | 2029 top | New money it needs | Against the last cycle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shallow | $137k | $0.51T | 0.75× |
| Smaller | $172k | $0.74T | 1.08× |
| Milder | $234k | $1.14T | 1.66× |
| Repeat | $260k | $1.30T | 1.90× |
| Bigger | $309k | $1.62T | 2.36× |
| Bull | $405k | $2.24T | 3.26× |
| Mania | $405k | $2.24T | 3.26× |
Two rungs asking for the same money is not an error. Mania carries the same bitcoin path as Bull and differs only in what the market pays over net asset value, so the money required to reach the price is identical and the premium is the whole difference between them.
Since the 2026-06-30 low this cycle has delivered $0.001T of new money, against a market cap up $0.44T over the same stretch. The price has moved and the money has not, which is what a recovery on thin volume looks like and is the single most useful line on this panel. Watch it turn positive before the price does.
Money in is realised capitalisation, market cap divided by MVRV, from daily closes. Each dollar of it bought 3.18× its own size in market cap across the last full cycle; that ratio has decayed every cycle (4.78x, 4.67x, 3.33x, 3.18x) and the last observed value is used rather than an extrapolation of the decay. ?
Against the alternatives rotate $1.11M against hold $358k
| Approach | End value | Coin | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rotate | $1.11M | 1.250 | Sell at tops the gate approves, buy back at the lows |
| Half capture | $466k | 0.511 | The same rules, executed at half size |
| A year early | $109k | 0.123 | Every signal fires one year before the top |
| A year late | $681k | 0.769 | Every signal fires one year after the top, into the fall |
| Hold | $358k | 0.405 | Never sell |
| Hold and borrow | $358k | 0.405 | Never sell at a top; borrow to live, cleared at each top by selling into it |
How much can you take out? up to $4,200 a year, on rotate, borrowing to live
| Plan | Spend now | By the end | Peak loan | Left | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotate, selling at tops | $4,000 | $143k | $0 | 2% | most left |
| Rotate, borrowing to live | $4,200 | $150k | $4,456 | 2% | most spending |
| Hold, selling to live | $2,300 | $82.1k | $0 | 0% | |
| Hold, borrowing, cleared at tops | $2,600 | $92.3k | $7,540 | 1% | |
| Hold, borrowing, debt rides | $2,200 | $79.5k | $10.9k | 1% |