Read this first
This page is longer than a disclaimer needs to be, because most of it is not legal boilerplate. It is a list of the things this model cannot see. That list is the honest part, and it is the part worth reading.
This is a calculator. You give it assumptions about a bitcoin price path, a premium, a company balance sheet and a set of rules, and it works out the arithmetic consequences. The numbers it returns are consequences of your inputs. They are not forecasts, not targets, and not estimates of what will happen.
Changing an input changes the output. That is the whole point of the tool, and it is also the reason no figure on this site should be read as a prediction: a different set of equally defensible assumptions produces a materially different answer.
It is not financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and it is not a personal recommendation. It takes no account of your circumstances, your other holdings, your obligations, your tax position or your capacity to bear a loss, because it knows none of them.
It is not an offer, an inducement or an invitation to buy or sell any security, any cryptoasset or anything else. Companies are shown so their published figures can be modelled. They are presented in no order of preference, and their appearance here is not an endorsement of any of them.
I am not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, and I am not authorised to give investment advice. Nothing here creates a client relationship, an advisory relationship, or any duty of care to you.
Some passages carry my own view and are marked as such. Those passages are opinion, offered as reasoning you can disagree with, and they are not advice either. Where a default setting reflects my own reading rather than a neutral value, the page says so at the point the default is used.
Curated company records are last-checked figures with the date they were checked and links to the filings they came from. Treasury companies change their coin holdings, share counts and debt frequently, sometimes weekly, so a record can be stale within days of being correct.
Prices are refreshed automatically. Balance-sheet figures are entered by hand and verified against filings, which means they lag. Every field is editable for exactly this reason: check the numbers against the current filing yourself, and change them. The record is a starting point, never an authority.
Where convertible dilution is not modelled for a company, the page states it on that company. In those cases the share price the model produces ignores a real effect and will be wrong by an amount the model cannot tell you.
It works in annual closes. It cannot see a peak or a trough that happens inside a year, so it will understate the best sale price and the best purchase price available in reality.
It assumes cycles continue to have the shape the last five had. There are only five, the halving supply effect attenuates each time, and the amplitude of each cycle has been compressing. A model fitted to five observations of a maturing process is a weak instrument for the sixth.
The execution assumptions rest on very little. The tranche capture is measured across three historical tops and the rebuy premium across two usable bottoms. Two observations is not a distribution, and the rebuy premium is the thinnest number in the model.
The power-law fair value is a fitted curve. It may stop describing the asset at any time, and nothing in the model would tell you it had.
Where the reserve holds anything other than bitcoin, its growth is a rate you set, not a forecast the model makes. Gold in particular is a drift assumption. There is no gold model here and inventing one would be the least defensible number on the page.
Exchange rates are converted once at a fixed rate. No currency path is modelled.
None of this makes the model useless. It makes it a way of testing assumptions, which is a different thing from a way of knowing the future.
The companies this tool models hold bitcoin financed partly with debt and preferred stock. That structure amplifies gains and losses, and the common equity is the most junior claim in it. Bitcoin has repeatedly fallen by more than seventy per cent from a high. A leveraged equity on top of it can fall further and can in principle go to zero.
The strategies this tool models involve selling and repurchasing at times chosen by rules that may not fire, may fire late, or may fire on a signal that turns out to mean nothing. The tool shows what happens when the timing is wrong, and the answer is that it is expensive.
You can lose all the money you put in. Do not put in money you cannot afford to lose, and do not rely on anything here when deciding.
I hold a position in Strategy, one of the companies modelled here, and I have an interest in bitcoin. I built this for my own use before publishing it, and the default assumptions are the ones I use. Read them knowing that.
The site is provided as it is, with no warranty of accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose. It may contain errors in its data, its arithmetic or its reasoning.
To the fullest extent the law allows, I accept no liability for any loss arising from any use of this site or reliance on anything in it, including losses caused by errors in the model or in the data. Nothing in this paragraph limits any liability that cannot lawfully be limited.
I am in the United Kingdom and this site is published from there. It is not directed at anyone in a jurisdiction where publishing or using it would be unlawful, and it is your responsibility to know whether that includes you.
If you are deciding what to do with real money, take advice from someone regulated to give it, who knows your circumstances. That is not what this is.
Last reviewed 2026-08-19.